I probably won’t write much before Tuesday, so let me get this out of the way now. I think Clinton will win, and will win by 8-10 points. Obama was off during the debate, got gang tackled by the press, Clinton, and McCain, and it stunted his momentum (he had been steadily closing in the polls until “bitter” entered the political lexicon).
Both sides are trying to spin this, but the reality is simple: Clinton wins by less than 10, it’s a disappointment for them, and if Obama loses by more than 10 it’s a disappointment for him. I’m basically calling it a 10 point spread.
Even more fundamental (and obvious): Obama and Clinton both need to win. If Obama wants to shut this down Tuesday, he needs to beat her. If Clinton wants to keep going, she needs to at least win. If she loses, I don’t understand what the point is in staying in.
And that brings me to my suggestions for PA Dems: I’m an Obama supporters, but beyond that, this primary needs to end. There’s nothing new being learned here, and the most likely outcome of the remaining primaries will be Obama with the same proportional lead in delegates and votes. There’s literally no point to this.
I understand the desire to have every state vote, but the system we have has never really allowed that to be the case. And, as I said, barring several landslides of epic proportions, the situation isn’t going to change materially.
These last weeks between the last set of primaries and this upcoming one have been wearying. I’m tired of it. Please make it stop. PA, it’s in your hands. Vote Obama. 