Watching the classless, absolute a-hole move by Belichick, going for it on 4th and 1 with a 28 point lead, I have to say that a bus crash or some other misfortune will be in the Pats future if they keep this up. There was no honor or necessity in going for it on 4th and 1 with that lead, none. Don’t give me any BS about how the game isn’t over until it’s over and how any team could come back. It’s the Bills and you’re the Pats, with the football equivalent of the 2000 Yankees lineup. The Bills are not coming back, and you’re going to put up more points.

The Patriots have no class. They continue to show it every week. This is just the latest example.

Alright, so we finally have the left/right splits for Donovan McNabb after the game against the New York Giants. Here are the new totals:

That means for that game, this was his breakdown:

That’s pretty much what I saw during the game. No passes off the left, which is where the pressure was coming from. Now, looking back I think I was being unrealistic during the game. Call it fan frustration. It’s more likely that the pressure from the left side made it hard to throw that way, plus he did have a few batted down, and it wasn’t like a quick WR screen or out was going to work against press coverage.

The real NFL commentators on ESPN, for example, have been railing against Andy Reid because he didn’t adjust by having a TE cover and help Winston Justice against Osi Umenyiora. That’s a fair point and amazingly obvious in hindsight.

Another correction/observation, McNabb was at least doing one look left on most of the sack highlights I saw, so I was probably wrong about that. Looking at it, he was still holding the ball too long, because he’s used to being able to scramble away. He’s not able to right now, and that looks to be the biggest adjustment he needs to make before they come back off the bye.

The splits aren’t updated, but my quick scan of the game’s play-by-play log shows that he was 1 for 3 going to the left side over 31 attempts. So, 28 to the right and center, 3 to the left. See, I do pay attention during games. Granted, that’s the side the pressure was coming from and where Winston Justice was getting schooled.

Also, after watching the replays, Donovan McNabb was looking left at the top of his drop but he never came back. He scrambles right, and was consequently looking that way almost always when pressure came.

Donovan McNabb has the following splits as of the end of last week’s games:

If I remember correctly, passing splits are updated after STATS does their tape review of the games on Monday/Tuesday, so I’d expect it to be updated by Wednesday if not tomorrow. I’ll send out the new numbers then.

I’m a pretty big Donovan McNabb fan. I’m not one of those Eagles fans who wants to run him out of town at the first sign of struggle. So, understand that when I say that McNabb is the reason the Eagles look so awful tonight, I don’t say it with malice or with a predisposition for picking on McNabb.

Couple of observations from tonight’s game (and from the first two, as well — I missed most of last week’s game).

1. His timing is off, he’s throwing late and holding the ball too long.
2. Yes, the receivers aren’t getting open as much as they need to against press coverage.
3. That being said, McNabb isn’t scanning the field like he used to. Too often, he’s only looking right (the natural side for a righty) and isn’t looking left. That’s a rookie mistake. Follow your progressions, Donovan. This is the biggest issue tonight, I’ve seen Curtis, Buckhalter, and others open left during a lot of the sacks.
4. Accuracy is down. He does throw a few into the turf every other game or so, but this year he’s been missing right, high, and behind receivers. This is uncharacteristic.
5. McNabb looks to be slow on his scrambles. Probably due to the injury, but he needs to adjust to that fact, then.

This is a quick list, but item 3 is by and far the most frustrating thing to me. When I’m watching QBs for my fantasy team (stop snickering!), that’s one thing I look for. His head should hit both sides on many if not most of the pass plays. A QB that only looks one way cuts off half his receivers. This also leads to a lot of interceptions.

The easiest way to see if I’m right or wrong will be to see the breakdown of passes by zone. I bet there has only been 1 or 2 attempts to the left side of the field. Pick any other game from last year and I bet that’s not true. (I’ll look this up tomorrow).

11 sacks (and counting) have to more with McNabb’s performance rather than the injuries hurting the team. I’m not saying Winston Justice isn’t making mistakes, or that Brian Westbrook isn’t a big loss. What I’m saying is that McNabb has done better with less. The Giants are good, but they’re not this good.

The good thing is that this stuff can be fixed, especially over a two week break (well, except for the speed issue). McNabb shouldn’t be immune from criticism, and it shouldn’t be we love you or leave town. Let’s go Eagles, this season isn’t over yet. McNabb does his part, the rest of the team does their’s and the playoffs are still in reach.

Rights issues in sports are a major concern for companies like ESPN and also the leagues like the NFL and NCAA. You only have to look at the rights fees companies pay to cover sports live or at the money leagues like the NFL make signing away something as simple as mobile data rights. The latest example, and an interesting one at that, involves a Louisville newspaper that tried to have a “live blog” of the NCAA Baseball tournament.

From the article:

A reporter was ejected from an NCAA baseball tournament game for submitting live Internet updates during play.

Brian Bennett, a writer for The (Louisville, Ky.) Courier-Journal, was approached Sunday by an NCAA representative in the bottom of the fifth inning and told that blogging from an NCAA championship event is against NCAA policies.

…

The newspaper said the university circulated a memo on the issue from Jeramy Michiaels, the NCAA’s manager of broadcasting, before the first super regional game Friday. It said blogs are considered a “live representation of the game” and blogs containing action photos or game reports are prohibited until the game is over.

If you think this is a relatively esoteric issue, consider the fact that mobile phones and even regular cameras are getting the capability to transmit digital images directly to sites like Flickr or Photobucket. Fans will be in a position to taunt their friends (”Wish ya were here!”) or instantly share accounts of the game as they happen.

This ought to be a fair use of admission. Fans are simply sharing their experiences, after all, and this doesn’t diminish the value of consistent, live data feeds like those provided by ESPN or the NCAA. This isn’t the case, however, as big money is involved.

Let me give you another example. The NFL is by far the worst offender when it comes to rights enforcement bordering on the stupid. They restrict any site, including partners like ESPN, from offering live play-by-play that offers any detail. They want to have a monopoly on that data on the Internet, and they want to control their partners on other digital platforms (Hello, Nextel).

So, every fall, we used to sit on our hands just waiting for the latest ridiculous demand from the NFL. Two NFL seasons ago, we literally had to rewrite parts of the site to pull any play description beyond “Rush, 12 yards” from the site because the NFL didn’t want us showing as much data as NFL.com. We also couldn’t show a drive chart that showed the results of each play (too much information!) and instead had to focus on a continuous line for each drive. It was stupid, and it wasn’t like it really increased the value of the NFL.com pages with the same data. We also had to pull the play-by-play summary for each quarter until it was completely over. It was ridiculous.

Ultimately, though, since online data rights are measured in the thousands and TV rights are measured in the millions per year, the online rights suffer to maintain the more lucrative TV rights. So, leagues like the NFL and the NCAA feel OK to beat up on small papers and web sites, even when they’re owned by places like ESPN.

I strongly recommend that fans punish such behavior by avoiding the league sites directly. They’re just trying to bilk you for even more money. I do have to point out that ESPN was probably indirectly the reason that this newspaper got shoved out of the NCAA baseball tourney, though. We had a big push to secure online rights to that tournament before I left, and I know ESPN is the TV partner for that event. So… boycott that if you must, but then again… it’s college baseball. I’m sure most of you are boycotting it without even knowing.

Seriously, though, these sorts of policies will leave only the leagues and big, big companies like ESPN or Fox Sports as your source for coverage of your favorite teams. Those of you that deal with MSG, YES, and NESN already have a taste of what this will be like, and an idea of why your cable bill is so ridiculous.

“I haven’t seen good football in Detriot since Matt Millen took over” — Rob Parker, Detroit sports columnist

I’ve written about this before, but the New England Patriots are truly the least classy “dynasty” in modern sports history. I’ve never seen a bigger bunch of whiney, sorry players with as much talent as they have. LaDainian Tomlinson was right to get mad, and it’s no surprise the Pats acted like this. The Pats are ridiculous, and it starts with the coach and the veterans on that team who consistently play the victim. There are very few franchises I don’t respect. The Pats are one.

I hate making big predictions about players. In fact, I think it’s so hard that I wanted to build a fantasy game around big predictions. So many things go into a career that it’s hard to say what someone will be at the end of their run.

With that said, I was reading Page 2’s Goats, gaffes and blunders article and I can’t help thinking what I said to a friend last week: Tony Romo is overrated. Way, way overrated. He’s not going to be great.

I’ve watched him quite a bit this year and while I recognize the talent, and I see how good he could be, I also recognize something else in him: a lack of preparation and seriousness about the game. He reminds me of Rex Grossman or any number of talented QBs who just don’t quite make it to the big time.

The mistake this past weekend was a case in point. He’s going to make mistakes like that, not because he’s trying to make a play, say like a Brett Favre, but because he’s not always giving his best. Maybe this weekend will scare him into fixing this, but I’m not holding my breath.

At least I had one prediction on FatMixx that turned out right. The scoring on the crazy McNabb/Brown/Buckhalter TD was corrected to reflect a tipped ball and completion to Buckhalter. Here’s the full impact of the scoring change:

OFF Phi +35.0 Passing Yards for Donovan McNabb
OFF Phi +1.0 Passing Touchdowns for Donovan McNabb
OFF Phi +1.0 Receptions for Correll Buckhalter
OFF Phi +55.0 Receiving Yards for Correll Buckhalter
OFF Phi +1.0 Receiving Touchdowns for Correll Buckhalter
OFF Phi -1.0 Receptions for Reggie Brown
OFF Phi -20.0 Receiving Yards for Reggie Brown
OFF Phi -1.0 Fumbles for Reggie Brown
RET Phi -1.0 Fumbles Recovered (Own Team) for Correll Buckhalter
RET Phi -37.0 Fumble Recovery Yds (Own Team) for Correll Buckhalter
RET Phi -1.0 Misc Fumbles Recovered for Correll Buckhalter
RET Phi -37.0 Misc Fumble Recovery Yards for Correll Buckhalter
RET Phi -1.0 Fumble Return TDs for Correll Buckhalter

Told ya so.

NFL.com has the updated GameBook if you’re interested.

So, before I really talk about the Arizona Cardinals implosion last night, I want you to watch Denny Green at the postgame press conference:

He’s referring to this preseason win against the Bears, in case you’re wondering.

So, they folded, sure. And killed my fantasy team in the process (no hard feelings). But the thing that baffles me is that for a team that talks so much about finishing games off, I don’t understand the second half game plan. It’s important to run, but my God, when your running back has 55 yards on 36 carries (an amazing 1.5 yds/carry), it’s time to do something different. I don’t care how much Edgerrin James whines.

The second thing is that you play to win the game. I know that you want to be safe, and you have a great kicker, but with 2nd and 3 at the Chicago 24 with 1:04 left, you don’t settle for the field goal. You go for the first down. And if you’re going for the first down in last night’s game, you trust Leinart. Edge is a pretty good receiver, by the way. I’m not sure if Denny Green realizes that.

Anyway, the Bears are good, but their offense showed what happens when you get cocky. Pregame reports had the defense talking about a shutout and quotes from Grossman saying that if he saw Muhsin Muhammad single-covered, he would consider him open. The number of bad passes of over 20 yards was ridiculous. He was pressing and it showed. They’re just lucky Denny Green doesn’t trust his offense and tightened up in the fourth.

(Via Deadspin)

It’s so weird seeing Al Michaels on NBC. Oh, and it’s weird seeing NFL football on NBC.

The Arizona Cardinals, amazingly enough, just signed Edgerrin James to a 4 year deal today and my initial reaction was, “Are you serious?” Arizona is where careers go to die. But, after thinking about it, this isn’t so terrible. All they need is a slightly better line and a much more stable/better quarterback and this is an offense. Larry Fitzgerald is still my favorite young wide receiver out there, and Edgerrin James only makes him more valuable. Anquan Boldin has shown signs of being a legitimate one or two receiver and the rest of the receivers aren’t terrible.

This does pretty much eliminate Edge from my list of potential keepers, but his cap value in our fantasy league pretty much dictated that from the beginning. Larry Fitzgerald, though… I think his value just went up quite a bit.

It’s interesting, though. The Cardinals are always maligned for being perpetual losers. They go out and sign a big name free agent and instead of people praising the Cardinals for making a good move, of really trying to win, the immediate reaction is to criticize Edge for choosing the Cardinals. The implication, of course, is that the Cardinals just can’t win no matter who they put on the field. There’s a temptation to sign big free agents as a way to show the organizations commitment to winning. Often, though, it’s the unheralded players, the offensive and defensive lines, the role players, and the smart journeymen pickups that show the real commitment. We’ll see if the Cardinals have figured it out or not.

What is it with losing teams in the Super Bowl not having any urgency at all in the final few minutes? Seriously, did the end of this game remind anyone of last year’s Super Bowl debacle with the Eagles? Too much time wasted, too many throws in the middle… It’s like you’ve pretty much given up the game. With 0:34 seconds left in the game, they still have to score the TD and the FG. No one is running to the line, no one is hurrying to spike the ball… There’s no urgency. Is this a West Coast offense thing? Some attitude passed down among the Holmgren disciples? (Or is that Walsh disciples?) Ugh, made me sick watching it because it reminded me of last year…

This is a trend in the NFL. I can’t count the number of games where teams seemed to ignore the game clock until 4 minutes left. I start wondering about the clock at about 6:30 left, especially since at 4 minutes you pretty much need to be perfect on defense. That’s unreasonable unless you have one of the best one or two defenses in the league. And even then, it’s asking a lot.

On a different note, Jerramy Stevens and Darrell Jackson are the worst big game receivers I’ve seen in a while. The drops were bad enough, but what the hell was up with Jackson and his, “oops, I went out of bounds again” thing? He’s the number one receiver on the Seattle Seahawks, arguably one of the best offenses in the league this year. Too casual with those catches, and completely lacking in urgency. You have to want to make those catches and try harder to win in those moments. Instead, both DJack and Stevens seemed to pull of the accelerator. Too bad for them and for Seahawk fans.

Beyond that, the referees were too much a part of the game. A couple of weird calls that ended up being drive destroying calls. More of them went against Seattle, but the Steelers got robbed some too. The penalty on the TD and the phantom holding call were probably the most egregious calls. You hate to have to talk about the refs when you’re talking about a championship game. I don’t remember really talking about them last year, and that’s probably because the ending of that game was so nuts.

At the end of it all, though, the game came down to urgency. The Seahawks didn’t have it at any point during the game. Congratulations go out to the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m happy for the Pittsburgh fans and, most importantly, Jerome Bettis and Hines Ward. Bettis gets to go out in style as one of the good guys in the game. Ward gets the MVP he deserves. This guy almost wasn’t a Steeler this year. Can you imagine that? Does this team make it to the Super Bowl (let alone win) without this guy? I don’t think so.

I have to root for the underdog today, so GO SEAHAWKS!

Can’t really root for Pittsburgh anyway, Philly haters that they are.

Update (1:55 2nd): That was NOT a TD. Crap call from the refs…

Update (5:38 4th): Well, the refs just suck in general. Lots of ticky-tack calls. Regardless, looks like Pittsburgh is as good as everyone was saying. Think this one is pretty much over unless Seattle pulls out a miracle.

If the Giants lose this game or if Dallas even ties it, does Jay Feely have a job after Monday?

If it wasn’t clear, I didn’t watch any football this weekend, so you won’t have to bear with me complaining about the Eagles.

Man, what a sad, sad way to end a football game: McNabb injured, defense impotent on the deep ball, and a late lead change when it seemed all was going Philly’s way. Damn, that sucked. I’m not quite ready to throw in the towel on the season, but the way things are going, I think it’s pretty unlikely that Philly will make the playoffs. Heck, they might not even get out of the cellar in the East, which is shocking to say the least.

The most interesting thing about this situation is that one of my coworkers, a fantasy football guru, mentioned to me in August, right before the season started, that the loser of the Super Bowl hasn’t made the playoffs the following season for the past 5 or so seasons. That’s a bit depressing…

The story line tomorrow will likely be about Terrell Owens and the fact that he was missing from the game. Perhaps someone will dig him up in Atlanta and get him to critique McNabb’s performance on camera. Unfortunately, Owens will have a point even though that point will further reinforce the fact that the team is better off without TO.

See, the biggest problems with the Eagles of old was the lack of good receivers. Pinkston and Mitchell were pretty much the worst 1 and 2 receivers in the league. Getting TO was the answer to that problem. Unfortunately, getting TO allowed the fans and the team to ignore the other glaring problems that plague the Eagles. There are several important ones, but by far the most important is to figure out what happens to the Eagles under 2 minutes. Half of the problem seems to be poor clock management which start at the head coach and goes down. It’s the stupid punt coverage at the end of this game where the players waited for the ball to roll that one extra yard instead of pouncing on it quickly to stop the clock. It’s the complete lack of urgency in the Super Bowl or in several other games this year. The other half is McNabb. It’s McNabb’s consistent brain freezes on critical throws late in games that have directly lead to the most painful postseason and regular season losses.

For this is the painful truth: Donovan McNabb has a problem leading comebacks. He must sort those out if he wants to win the big game. The fans need to acknowledge this and, more importantly, the team must acknowledge this. All the other problems fall second to this. Don’t get me wrong. I love watching McNabb, I love rooting for the guy, and think he truly is one of the great quarterbacks in the game. When he’s settled, even the greatest pass rush won’t prevent him from simply destroying the other team. But he’s not the same in critical game situations. It needs to get fixed or else his legacy will be the guy that couldn’t hack it under pressure.

This may seem pretty harsh, but I think it needs to be said. The other problems facing the team are simply cyclical… Yeah, the defense isn’t that strong. The line is thin, the corners exposed too often, and the running game needs help. Perhaps we need that other playmaker on offense. These can all be fixed year over year. McNabb, though, is a franchise guy. He’s nearly the perfect QB for this team. He just needs to work this out. And the only way the team will is if the team acknowledges it and we talk about it. Because ignoring it will bring us yet another late game interception.

…for the NFL DRAFT!!!

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=2197305

Writing about the Patriots today, Michael Smith says:

So you go right on ahead and write them off if you want. I’ll admit it certainly is tempting right about now. But even with injuries to such key performers Kevin Faulk, Rodney Harrison and Matt Light, along with the players the champs lost during the offseason, I’m not ready to do so. You have to be strong up the middle, and after the tackles, New England’s defense isn’t. But I’ve seen this team recover too many times. They’re like the Yankees.

I’ve been ribbing a coworker who is a huge Pats fan about this same thing. While the salary cap does make comparing any NFL franchise to the big spending Yankees difficult, the similarities are undeniable. The modern Patriots dynasty is the NFL version of the Yankees 1996-2000 dynasty. For one thing, the swagger is starting to show up. They were uncharacteristically obnoxious during the Super Bowl (and no, I’m not just saying that because I’m an Eagles fan). The players are also starting to believe in their own invincibility. I mean, you win three championships and keep hearing how good you are, it’s only reasonable that you might start believing it.

There are also other things. The Tom Brady/Derek Jeter similarities, for example. Or, the tuck rule and Jeffrey Maier (both critical for the first championship). You need those kind of breaks to build dynasties but players don’t remember the break. It’s part of the story players build up about themselves, that they won the game by skill rather than a combination of skill and luck.

I just think it’s funny, anyway, because it is a Boston team. That’s pretty much it.

The Eagles game today and my roller coaster fantasy day has left me with little energy to comment on the weekend. So, here are some very brief comments:

First, Brian Dawkins and Donovan McNabb are what make the Eagles go. The sideline reporter during the game reported that Dawkins told the defense “They won’t score on us again” (or something like that). And sure enough, except for a meaningless TD late, the Chiefs didn’t score again. McNabb went out there nursing a number of injuries and simply threw another 300+ yard game. Talk softly and make big plays.

Second thought: Jerry Porter will be my biggest draft day mistake by the end of the season. The preseason hype and the logic behind it is solid, but watching the Raiders game today, I saw one big thing that worries me. Kerry Collins doesn’t scan the field very effectively. He only sees one side of the field it seems and that side is usually the side with Moss. Since Porter generally lines up on the other side of the field, Porter will only get good looks when Moss is on the sideline. With Donte Stallworth taking the #1 slot for New Orleans this week, I should’ve started him instead. I’ll need to figure something out for the rest of the season…. benching Porter will be expensive.

Third thought: Screw you, Neil Rackers.

This was a fun NFL weekend. Looking forward to my showdown tomorrow with Paul. I just need Kasay to hit like, say, 6 field goals for the win… yeah, I’m not holding my breath.

Don’t have a ton of time tonight to do the full recap, so let me just focus on a couple of items. First, the Vikings look terrible. I’m glad I didn’t get their defense in my fantasy draft because I, too, bought into the hype of the upgraded defense. Perhaps they are actually good, but so far they’ve looked downright awful. Even worse for Viking fans, Daunte Culpepper is well on his way to be this year’s Ahman Green. I wonder how many people drafted him first or second in the draft? How many of those are gnashing their teeth right now?

Eagles game? Jets/Dolphins game? Yawn…

By the way, Carnell Williams? Wow.

My last thought for the evening: Brian Billick, genius coach or lucky jerk? Discuss.

One of my pet peeves is coaches who can’t get the most out of their players. For example, Rich Kotite trying to implement the West Coast offense with a QB whose fastball passes might decapitate a WR closer than 10 yards away. (That still makes me sad.) Game planning seems to separate the Reids and the Belicheks from the rest. It gives them consistency. Personnel matters, of course, but the good coaches change things up depending on who they’re going to face. The bad ones bring out the same defense, the same playbook, and the same offense each game, over and over, win or lose, whether they’re playing the Ravens or playing the Colts.

My candidates for the bad list: Billick, Tice, Holmgren (maybe), Cowher (!), Martz (!), Shanahan.

I don’t want to take anything away from the fine game played by the Falcons defense yesterday. I think they’re responsible for at least one of the missed field goals and pretty much kept McNabb from getting enough time to get a deep throw off. But, come on…. folks are acting like DeAngelo Hall played this unbelievable game against Terrell Owens. I didn’t realize 112 yards, including a 23 yard completion was getting shut out.

Trotter is innocent! Free Trotter!

Update: Two thoughts watching this game. First, WTF Akers? We lost that game because of one of the best kickers in the league looking like one of the worst. Second, I’m starting to believe that McNabb is the worst 2 minute quarterback among the elite QBs. Seriously, some urgency? Bueller? Bueller?

One of the things you learn quickly playing fantasy football is that many pre-season predictions aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on. I’m not talking about the typical tricky things to predict, like TD totals and injuries. The basics often become tricky: Is a team good or bad? What are their strengths and weaknesses? On and on.

Today brought some surprises that show just tough it is to evaluate teams. Here are my top surprises today:

1. SFO def. STL — Whoda thunkit? If I had a buck for every prediction that said that a) the Rams would be a dangerous offense and b) the 49ers would struggle offensively, I’d be a rich man. Of course, San Francisco played some good defense and got some breaks. They did actually struggle on offense, but made big plays when it counted. St. Louis put up the yards but couldn’t finish. The Rams actually lead most of the offensive categories by a good margin.

   BTW, something like 30% of players playing in ESPN.com’s Eliminator Challenge game had St. Louis or my second surprise loser, MIN. For those that gamble in elimination pools, this was a rough week.

2. TB def. MIN — Remember what I said above about being rich? Ditto for these two teams. The Vikings were supposed to survive the loss of Randy Moss and show everyone that they didn’t miss him one bit. Well, they didn’t look like it today. I actually watched little of this game, in part because I thought it was going to be lopsided, so I can’t say too much. Just, go TB!

   Two other thoughts: Minnesota’s defense was supposed to be much better this year. One game doesn’t say much, but Carnell “Cadillac” Williams broke a 71 yarder and rushed for 148 yards. Joey Galloway almost had 100 yards receiving. Yes, that Joey Galloway. So, how bad is the offense again? Second, the Vikings only TD came on an interception return. Are the people that drafted Culpepper early worried yet?

3. MIA def. DEN — This one isn’t too much of surprise except for the total number of points put up by the “anemic” Miami offense. Throw in some defensive points and the Dolphins suddenly look good. I got a chance to watch Ronnie Brown and he looks like he might be a good back. Gus Frerotte actually looked like a starter, and Dolphins fans might have some hope.

Other surprises included the Giant’s offensive outburst against what was supposed to be a good defense. I was also surprised at Dallas beating San Diego. In a high scoring game, even. With the offense scoring all the points. Miracle!

Now we wait until next Sunday to see whether the teams can keep up their prediction busting ways. It is only one game, after all, and it’s a long season. Tomorrow the Eagles show why they’re the best team in the league playing another good defense with a bad offense. Hope there are no surprises tomorrow.