So, I’ve got a couple of Lieberman predictions that I’d like to set down in print so that if I’m right, I can point out that I wasn’t just pulling a Lieberman and feeling which way the wind is blowing.

First, I think Ned Lamont will pull out a surprising, but very narrow victory on November 7th. I base this on two things. First, my drive to work goes through a very, very Republican section of Bristol. I’ve NEVER in 3 years of working there seen a Democratic candidate on a lawn sign. There are now 2 Ned Lamont lawn signs in Bristol on my way to ESPN which is shocking to me.

Second, every single person I’ve talked to, including some 2004 Bush voters are annoyed by Joe Lieberman. They’re voting for Lamont and that can’t hurt. So, even though Lamont is down 12% in the last ARG poll, I still think there’s a decent chance that this will turn around.

Based on the poll, it’s obviously a long shot. So, let’s say that Lieberman wins, which brings me to the next prediction. If Lieberman wins, he will caucus with whatever party holds the majority in the Senate. If the Republicans hold a majority, he will caucus with them. If the Democrats win a majority, he will caucus with them. I also believe that if the final tally sits at 50-49 Democrats, he will caucus with the Republicans (thus tossing the Senate to the Republicans).

I again realize how wacky this is based on the conventional wisdom, but my suspicion is that he will caucus with whoever gives him the best shot at taking a committee chair. We’ll get some speech about how he’s bringing the parties together. On top of that, I’m guessing Joe’s new donors will want something back for their troubles and cash, and giving the Senate back to Republicans would sure make a nice present.

So, there it is. I really believe that he’s going to flip, and that the only way he’ll caucus with the Dems is if they have the majority without him. Seven seats are tossups according to Cook, so there’s a chance that they can do it without Lieberman.

While I wouldn’t be surprised if you could take any war supporter of this war and line the quotes up, the Nixon quotes do sound like Lieberman.

Update: The Lamont campaign put together this video to highlight the similarities:

(via Atrios)

Long time without a post on the Lieberman/Lamont/Schlesinger race here in CT, so here’s a quick update. The campaign has quieted down a bit in recent weeks. Not quite the same press as right before primary, as you might imagine. Since then, Joe Lieberman lied about his campaign website being “hacked,” then finally a few days ago relaunched the web site in this cheesy new design. The site has a blog which tellingly links only to out-of-state blogs. It’s weird, because there are CT blogs that support his candidacy, at least in part. The fine folks at CT Local Politics have a few Lieberman supporters.

It’s indicative of a larger trend. People, including senior political figures in our state have dropped Lieberman. His campaign is dependent on a lot of out-of-state support, including ads and support from a shady Republican-backed outfit. In fact, he has spent more time hanging out with Jodi Rell, our popular Republican governor, than any Democrats in the state. Bipartisan indeed.

I hope he loses big come November. The power of incumbency is very tough to beat, and Joe has deep connections and outstanding favors in all sorts of places. The labor movement is split between the two candidates (Lieberman has an edge there), so traditional sources for volunteers and ground support will be split as well. This is going to be an interesting race as we get closer to November.

This Tuesday is the primary in Connecticut, where we finally get to see how Democrats in CT will vote on the CT Senator race between Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont. Most of you know that Heidi and I are supporting Ned Lamont in this race.

Some of you that live in CT and are registered Democrat or unaffiliated got postcards from me about the Ned Lamont campaign. I forgot to mention that if you're unaffiliated, you must switch your party registration to Democrat in order to vote in the primary Tuesday. You can do this Monday if you're interested in voting. Changing from unaffiliated to any party works instantly.

A quick summary of why we're voting for Ned Lamont:

• Ned Lamont won't say this: "It is time for Democrats who distrust President Bush to acknowledge that he will be Commander-in-Chief for three more critical years, and that in matters of war, we undermine Presidential credibility at our nation's peril." I find that statement insulting to the very nature of American democracy and deeply offensive. Joe Lieberman actually said that and has never taken it back.
• Ned is a businessman and understands how social programs such as universal healthcare actually helps businesses grow. (Ask GM or even your own HR people how much healthcare costs the company).
• Lamont has argued and campaigned for more transparency in politics. Lieberman has been for the Cheney energy bill, for Justice Alito who advocates for fewer limits on Presidential power, and has never (well, until this past week when it was politically advantageous) stood up and advocated investigations or hearings on any of the myriad of issues and scandals that have come up around the White House.
• Ned Lamont has a good, progressive approach to government: he believes that earmarks are a bad way to allocate federal resources, that the government should stay out of the private lives of citizens as much as possible, and believes energy policy is a national security issue.

Those are the top issues for me. If you believe they focus around the President, they do. These positions all express a philosophy of governance, that somehow the President is more important than the other branches, about how minority and majority parties should behave in Congress, and of simply providing a false definition of bipartisanship that has nothing to do with compromise.

You can find out more about Ned Lamont at his web site or you can check out some of his appearances. Videos are available around the web, but here's a few to help you out.

This is his recent appearance on the Colbert Report:

If you want more, here's the Stephen Colbert explaining why this race matters to so many of us in CT:

If you have any questions about the campaign or have any concerns, get in touch with me or with the Lamont campaign. They have a good web site, and all of the CT political blogs listed in the blogroll are covering the race (some are supporters, some are bipartisan blogs with both sides represented). Whatever you do, and whoever you decide to support, if you're a registered Democrat Get Out and Vote on Tuesday!