Assuming, as I think you safely can, Republicans get over this ridiculous infighting over whether McCain is conservative enough, McCain will be a pretty formidable candidate even in what should be a gimme election for the Democrats. We had his speech to CPAC on the TV here in the office and he’s on his game, spinning his record with some amazing skill.

The biggest thing is that the myth of McCain the maverick and the principled Senator isn’t like the myths Romney and Giuliani were trying to build around their candidacy. If you’ll forgive an awkward metaphor, McCain’s candidacy is cheesecloth or gauze. From a distance, it looks like a solid fabric. When you get close, though, you see all the little holes and gaps. The Giuliani and Romney candidacies were more like canvas with giant holes cut through. Far easier to spot and say, that’s not what it looks like.

Because McCain isn’t what he says he is. He’s no maverick, in fact he brings some of Bush’s same pandering techniques. The worst tendency is the “be populist in a ‘conservative way’” thinking. In order to make Grover Norquist happy, we get tax rebates that don’t actually boost the economy efficiently (seriously, how many months of rent can most people afford on a few hundred dollars?).

He’s also compromised many principles in order to further his campaign. He was called out famously by Jon Stewart, who usually is pretty friendly to McCain. As I wrote back then:

His candidacy will be an interesting one. He’s become a pragmatist who values his own aspirations more than the principles he claims to hold dear. The path to the far right will not be easy to return from. The pressure to remain with the far right will remain until he wins re-election and is free [of] campaign politics. If he’s able to convince enough moderate and left-leaning Americans that he’s still a maverick, he’ll win. That’s all it comes down to. He hasn’t convinced me, and I hope he convinces few others.

I still think this is accurate, and it will be aided by a media that generally fawns over McCain and refuses to challenge his “maverick” status.

BTW, you can watch that Daily Show episode online if you want. Oh, and remember this moment of brilliance.