I didn’t do so well this year. After the draft last year, I felt like I had mastered the format and figured out a good system for evaluating draft value. This year, I was just shocked at how out of whack my sheet was compared to what people were paying. Looking back at my prep, I realized at least one critical mistake in building out my sheet, but I still am surprised that some of these players went for the point prices they fetched. 150 point cap, and Laurence Maroney went for 50, Willis McGahee for 50, Peyton Manning for 51. Those are higher than last years by a few points a piece at each position.
Ultimately, I forgot to factor in keeper inflation, the bump that comes with the extra money saved by having a cheaper keeper. There were some excellent bargains on the keeper list this year, and that pushed up spending by 5 points or so for the top players, especially running backs not in RBBC situations. That miscalculation kept me from keeping up with bids, and I missed out on the entire first round of players. I got no one out of the first 12 on the board. That’s unlike me.
Also, an in person auction draft is a lot like playing poker… you want to vary your bids, stay in on players you don’t want sometimes, so that people don’t have a clear read on what your intentions are. After all, if they know you want a player, they know they can push you to bid a few extra points on them. This year, I stayed out of players that I wasn’t interested in. I don’t think I bid on one player that I didn’t want. Contrast that to last year, where I was basically happily playing chicken with other owners trying to bid up their players even though I had no interest in them. This year, I got played instead because I was easier to read.
Finally, I definitely wasn’t as prepared. One nice thing about working at ESPN was having the TV on in the background at my desk. I picked up a lot of football passively by listening to NFL Live most days. This year, I have been busy with the startups and haven’t had a chance to do the kind of reading I do most years. There was a point at about the 9th round today that I realized I didn’t know who I would put up for the rest of the draft. That’s how I ended up with Muhsin Muhammad.
I still like my team, even though it didn’t fit the plan I had going in. It’s not as strong as my team last year, nor is it as balanced, but overall I think I recovered well.
As for everyone else’s draft, the best drafted team was the Nukes followed closely by the Pirates. You can take a look at our league at ESPN FFL or our points spreadsheet at Google Docs. Happy to hear what others think. Feel free to leave a comment below.
August 27th, 2007 at 10:06 am
I think you did much better than you give yourself credit for…. one question Josh and I had during the draft was whether or not you decided to build your team around the run and shoot offense?
Last year, you strated out with a 2 TE or a K-Gun set… and switched to pro-set….so we wondered if you were setting up the run and shoot set to see how it would fare out of the gate.
August 27th, 2007 at 10:08 am
Well, thank you, Sujal. I’ll tell you, walking out of the draft, I wasn’t really sure about my team. But, looking at it the next morning, I think I might have gotten a few steals in Carnell “Cadillac” Williams and Brandon Jackson. If Williams has the same or a better season as he did his rookie year, he’s a steal. If he has a season like he did last year, I overpaid.
Jackson is a different story. I got him for relatively low cost and if he has 3/4 the season that Ahman Green had a year ago, he might be a steal.
Jamal Lewis will be boom or bust, nothing more. And will contribute nothing in the receiving game.
None the less, its going to be fun.
August 27th, 2007 at 10:10 am
Btw, the power rankings are out and even with an 8th place initial placement (see other years when you were like 10th and won it all), a 7.23 ranking when 3 through 11 are seperated by 0.87 pts. makes it a dead heat race.