I’ve been looking at iTunes, Joost, and the other Internet-based ways to consume TV and am beginning to wonder if I could live without cable. It’s more or less possible to view episodic content, from shows like Lost and Heroes to The Daily Show and The Colbert Report using just iTunes. Sure, it’s not HD or even widescreen, but with the Apple TV now out, I’m sure that’s just around the corner. Microsoft is offering a similar service with it’s XBox Live offering, where you can download shows right to your XBox 360. Sony should be coming out with something as well.
My biggest concerns are around “live” broadcasts, things like sports, cable news, and weather. I can’t imagine TV without ESPN or football on Sunday or the other things that I can’t get over-the-air (OTA). No CNN or MSNBC on election night or during election season would be weird and I take the Weather Channel for granted.
At least for the news and weather things, there are OTA choices in the HDTV world. Almost every city I’ve been in using OTA HDTV, one of the local stations is broadcasting an automated 24-hour weather forecast on one of the sub channels. There are also more frequent news breaks on some of them, as well.
Really, it comes down to sports. Ultimately, it’s why ESPN can charge the subscriber fees it can. There are a ton of people just like me who get cable primarily to have ESPN. So, any world that replaces cable would need to offer a way to subscribe to ESPN, local live sports (NESN, YES, etc.), a la carte. Knowing how much ESPN relies on subscriber fees (worth several billion a year according to public estimates), that’s going to be a tough sell with the networks, let alone Comcast, Cox, AT&T, etc.
Still, I’d like to take a stab at what it would cost to watch the shows I really watch every month plus a guestimate on the “live” content based on current package pricing. I don’t know cable subscriber fees charged by folks like NESN, YES, etc. so I’m basing the price of getting all the Eagles games, for example, on 1/16th of the NFL Sunday Ticket price.
So, with that said, here is the list of TV I watch along with my estimated prices. Where available, I’ve taken prices directly from iTunes, and I’m estimating what I’d be willing to pay just for ESPN or CNN or the other “live” channels I want that aren’t OTA. These prices are per year.
| Shows | Price |
|---|---|
| The Daily Show (161 ep last season, $10 per 16 eps) | $100.00 |
| The Colbert Report (161 ep, $10/16) | $100.00 |
| Lost | $34.99 |
| Heroes | $42.99 |
| Battlestar Galactica | $34.99 |
| 30 Rock | $34.99 |
| Scrubs | $34.99 |
| The Office (optional) | $34.99 |
| ESPN (I’d pay $10/month) | $120 estimate |
| CNN ($1/month) | $12 estimate |
| MSNBC ($1/month) | $12 estimate |
| Red Sox (NESN) ($200/15) | $13 (I’d pay $36) |
| Phillies($200/15) | $13 (I’d pay $36) |
| Eagles ($249/16) | $16 (I’d pay $36) |
| Weather Channel (optional, $1/month) | $12 estimate |
| Total | $684.94 |
My monthly cable bill is about $70 per month ($72.62 including box rental, remote rental, some of the taxes, and fees). That totals out to $840. So, I would be saving over $100 per year, avoiding commercials in most of the episodic TV (ESPN and live TV plus OTA could still sell advertising). The shows would be available when I want them and, if I used iTunes, the shows would be saved on my drives, available for viewing later over and over.
Am I forgetting any shows? How does this math work out for those of you that watch more TV? Keep in mind that OTA channels like ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, etc. would still exist, so you wouldn’t lose things like American Idol or Dancing with the Stars or even Lost if you wanted to see it at the scheduled time.
Also, considering the paltry (by comparison) subscriber fees charged by Discovery, History Channel, TLC, etc., an a la carte broadcast-style offering would probably be within budget with the $100 savings.
Anyway, consider this a rough, back-of-the-envelope estimate. I’m curious what folks think is missing?
PS. All of this was prompted by this article on CNN reporting on changing TV habits. While it’s hard to take seriously any article that fails to mention commercial skipping with DVRs, it’s worth reading.
May 10th, 2007 at 8:46 am
You’re missing a key item: Slingbox. It tunnels a TV stream over the internet. My friend Mike (he gets credit for this brilliant idea every time) is a Phillies fan living in New York City. He placed a Slingbox in his parents’ house, and he can watch Phillies games broadcast from that origin.
Mike’s solution uses cable at his parents’ house, but you could easily use an antenna. This would get you the (roughly) 50% of Phillies’ games and 100% of Eagles’ games which are broadcast OTA in Philadelphia.
Bonus 1: Slingbox has no monthly fee. It’s a device which you own and operate.
Bonus 2: Slingbox has HD capability. I’m not sure how well it works across the internet (vs. local household network) but as the last mile gets faster, you may be able to get higher quality.
So buy two, and put them in Philly and Boston. Flat fee and you get your sports.
May 10th, 2007 at 9:59 am
Plus, you can cut down your TV related costs.
LOST is shown on the ABC web site (I believe for one week) after it is broadcast, as well as some of the other regular TV programming. I know this because I lost my satellite dish during a storm (because the wind was so strong off the water that it folded my dish over) one week and watched LOST the next day via the computer.
They make you sit through like 4 30 second commercials as they start each broadcast section but that is nothing compared to commercials for a full hour of TV.
I think 30 Rock and Heroes can be seen via their networks respective websites, but I am not 100% sure because I haven’t lost the Dish on those nights ever.
But you could cut your prices back even farther when you take that into account.
BTW, if you want, look into Direct TV, I saved a lot…. even when I buy the football package, I still save money over cable….get better service.
And after I moved the Dish so the wind can’t affect it…. no problems.
May 10th, 2007 at 10:24 am
As an HD nut, I don’t consider much of the above a real alternative. Maybe if you want to throw in “downloads” (from unnamed sources), but I’m assuming we’re not looking to go into a gray area (or jump over it).
One thing that might make the $100 savings not worth it: time. My cable bill is outrageous, but I never have to think about what I do or don’t get (although I would like more HD channels, but that’s an issue in every market). One source and it’s all there.
May 10th, 2007 at 10:36 am
David, I don’t think it’s a real alternative yet, but within 12 months I suspect that shows will be available in a downloadable format at 720p soon. I also think the benefits of owning the show and not having commercials is worth it to me. I can watch each episode of Lost and Heroes in 42 minutes instead of 60, and I can watch them again.
Also, I think I would burn the $100 savings buying the rest of the channels a la carte. I could skip the Evangelical Network, the Catholic Network, Fox News, We, Oxygen, Lifetime, and the probably 120 channels I don’t care about each month. Even if the sub fees were pennies for each one (and I guarantee Fox, Lifetime, and the like aren’t), I probably could fit the 30 or so channels that are in my Slingbox presets within $10/month.
In other words, I would only consider the above as a real alternative if I could buy my cable channels a la carte. That would solve the entire problem of broadcast/live channels and the variety you want.
Sujal
May 10th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
From my dvr, I might have an extra minute of time by fast forwarding through commercials (if I don’t stop to watch one or two, which I sometimes do), and I don’t have to delete it, so I’m not sure I see much of a difference there. At the same time, I still use my Xbox 1 as a media center (just a great setup), and if it weren’t for it clunking out on HD, I’d use it even more.
If cable ever goes a la carte, I can’t see the small cable networks surviving and few would have low rates. They’re only so low now because everyone’s paying for them; but I guess I’m getting off-topic with that.
Microsoft has a live TV product coming for the 360 (eventually). The video I watched for it (I assume on Soapbox a while back, but can’t remember) looked pretty good, I’m curious to see if they can put out a cable-alternative that way.
The videos on the 360 are already pretty good quality. It’s far from the selection of iTunes, but would definitely be my prefence if I was buying shows in that method.
May 10th, 2007 at 10:11 pm
Interesting. I’m surprised there’s only a minute saved. An hour episode of Lost downloaded from iTunes is 42-46 minutes. Maybe fast-forwarding isn’t as good as just not having them in the way at all.
I think we’re basically agreeing, btw. The only disagreement I see is the cost of the a la carte networks. While I don’t think they will be pennies, I don’t think it would be more than $10/month to get the remaining channels in my favorites.
Also, the live TV alternative from Microsoft is cable just coming through your Internet connection. It’s the same bundling business model. The only potentially interesting item is the price.
Sujal
June 28th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
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September 8th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
You can definitely do better than a minute or two in time savings with a Tivo. You don’t use fast-forward, you use the hack for 30-second skip. (Select-Play-Select-3-0-Select, and it will ding three times–ignore the bongs as you put the code in). Then you can use the arrow-with-the-straight-line-next-to-it button to skip in 30 second increments–lasts till you reboot the Tivo.