So, I’ve got a couple of Lieberman predictions that I’d like to set down in print so that if I’m right, I can point out that I wasn’t just pulling a Lieberman and feeling which way the wind is blowing.

First, I think Ned Lamont will pull out a surprising, but very narrow victory on November 7th. I base this on two things. First, my drive to work goes through a very, very Republican section of Bristol. I’ve NEVER in 3 years of working there seen a Democratic candidate on a lawn sign. There are now 2 Ned Lamont lawn signs in Bristol on my way to ESPN which is shocking to me.

Second, every single person I’ve talked to, including some 2004 Bush voters are annoyed by Joe Lieberman. They’re voting for Lamont and that can’t hurt. So, even though Lamont is down 12% in the last ARG poll, I still think there’s a decent chance that this will turn around.

Based on the poll, it’s obviously a long shot. So, let’s say that Lieberman wins, which brings me to the next prediction. If Lieberman wins, he will caucus with whatever party holds the majority in the Senate. If the Republicans hold a majority, he will caucus with them. If the Democrats win a majority, he will caucus with them. I also believe that if the final tally sits at 50-49 Democrats, he will caucus with the Republicans (thus tossing the Senate to the Republicans).

I again realize how wacky this is based on the conventional wisdom, but my suspicion is that he will caucus with whoever gives him the best shot at taking a committee chair. We’ll get some speech about how he’s bringing the parties together. On top of that, I’m guessing Joe’s new donors will want something back for their troubles and cash, and giving the Senate back to Republicans would sure make a nice present.

So, there it is. I really believe that he’s going to flip, and that the only way he’ll caucus with the Dems is if they have the majority without him. Seven seats are tossups according to Cook, so there’s a chance that they can do it without Lieberman.