Jobs report came out today with a stunning 308,000 new jobs created last month. This is 2,000 jobs higher than the average monthly job creation that Bush promised us the second tax cut would create. I have to admit I’m suspicious of the actual numbers since this administration has a poor track record of letting government agencies do their job (pressuring employees to lie about the cost of the Medicare bill, using Treasury employees to create campaign material for the GOP, etc.). Overall, though, it’s hard not to be optimistic.
While I’m concerned that this little bright light will boost Bush in the polls, I have to say that more of me is hoping the numbers are true and we’re finally coming out of this economic funk. In the end, the welfare of my friends (and me) is clearly more important than Bush’s poll numbers.
I was reading reaction to this news on Eschaton and a few things said are worth passing on. First, 74,000 jobs included in the estimate are the striking California grocery workers who finally returned to work (putting the Bush administration in the amusing position of benefiting from strong labor union action). Someone else pointed out that the delayed construction hiring (because of an unusually harsh winter) doesn’t get factored into the seasonal adjustments because the seasonal adjustments don’t take into consideration the actual weather. I’m not sure about either of these facts, but if true, might warn us about getting too excited.
The worst thing that could come from this news, I guess, is that the forecasters revise their expectations up from this news and we return to the 130-160,000 numbers predicted for this month. I hope we don’t.
Go, Go, Gadget Economy! (just trying to cheer it on)






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